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000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101134 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Howard, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico have slowly become more organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Howard (EP4/EP092022)
...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A DAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 the center of Howard was located near 23.7, -120.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Howard
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Tropical Storm Howard Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 101440 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 ...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A DAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 120.2W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 120.2 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Howard is forecast to weaken further today and tonight, and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky ]]> -
Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101441 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today, and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h. Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Howard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101440 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY -
Tropical Storm Howard Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 14:42:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT